Predicting NBA Injuries This Season

The NBA pre-season is filled with excitement as fans marvel at the idea of their team playing with some new off-season acquisitions. Fans of the league wait to see a new superstar duo or trio play together for their first time. However, within the first few weeks of the NBA season, injuries occur, often de-railing at least one team that was either supposed to be contending, or supposed to be ascending.

I am of the belief that by looking at a player’s injury history, play style, and kinematics, NBA injuries can be seen before they occur. There are two main areas where injuries occur during a season, the first being at the season start when players are ramping up for full speed play, and at the end of the regular season when players play extra games to change positions for the playoffs.

When looking at the first portion of this, injuries that occur at the beginning of the season, these are often harder to evaluate. However, given the short offseason, there are some key factors like rest time between the seasons that will impact player injuries.

The first player injury that I can foresee is Anthony Davis. Davis has a history of getting injured, which was one of the reasons prompting him to sign a 5-year contract, but for this injury I am relying on another factor. Davis is going to experience one of the shortest off-season’s in major sports league history. Another contributing factor was in the NBA finals Davis experienced a multitude of injuries, primarily around his ankle and heel. One of them even looked like a possible Achilles tear before he came back onto the court. My guess is that while he did not tear his Achilles fully, there were likely some micro-tears that occurred. Considering this, the short offseason, and the likelihood he will be playing a high volume of games in a shortened season, I am worried we will see a major injury. While unlikely, and an unwanted opinion to make, I would guess AD will rupture his Achilles at some point this season. If not now, he may have this injury occur in a few years, but all the signs seem to point to this.

The second player injury that I can foresee is Nikola Jokic. Jokic does not necessarily have the same injury history as other players, but the short off-season and his weight make him a likely suspect for a player who could get injured. Jokic has shed some weight since last season, but spending hours upon hours running in his heavier frame is sure to have taken a toll on his knees. Jokic is a player who is not extremely athletic, and will likely not have knee problems due to high jumping, but rather because of the force of his body. Again, while unlikely and an unwanted opinion to make, I believe Jokic will experience a ligament tear in his knee, either the ACL or MCL.

Moving on to the second portion of injuries that often occur, injuries near the playoffs for teams jostling for playoff position. The issue I foresee for teams in this scenario is that any team competing for the 8-9 seed range, and possibly the play-in game will be forced to play their star players high minutes during a condensed season with more back-to-backs than in previous years. I believe many players on those teams will be in poor scenarios for their health. Players I believe could experience a serious injury due to this include Zion, Westbrook, Hayward, Fox, Lavine, and possibly Devin Booker (depending on the Suns positioning). I picked these guys mainly because they either have a serious injury history, are young enough where they will be playing high minutes, or are uber-athletic and are at risk of a freak injury when playing for an extended period.

Few NBA players, teams and fans are truly understanding the effect of a shortened off-season followed by a jam-packed season. As much as no one wants to see it, injuries are coming.